Problem Framing

Summary

  • question
    • Which energy companies benefit most from carbon reduction strategies.
    • Focus is on improvement opportunities with strong return on investment, not just the largest emitters.
  • drivers
    • regulatory
      • Rising carbon prices toward 2030 and beyond.
      • Performance based systems that reward lower intensity.
      • Fuel and product rules that favor lower carbon supply.
    • market
      • ESG scores influence lending and investor appetite.
      • Capital shifting away from high carbon assets.
      • Customers and end users tracking supply chain emissions.
  • definition of benefit
    • intensity
      • High emissions intensity signals an efficiency gap and room to improve.
    • scale
      • Medium to high absolute emissions create financial materiality.
    • reduction pathways
      • Proven technologies and programs with short payback periods.
    • pressure
      • Policy, pricing, and stakeholder expectations that push for action.
  • high benefit zone
    • high intensity: clearly above the peer median.
    • material scale: emissions well above reporting thresholds.
    • addressable share: meaningful portion of emissions tied to fixable sources.
    • value signal: annual carbon costs large enough to justify capital.
  • scope
    • geography: one province with strong reporting coverage and clear regulatory context.
    • period: 24 months of monthly production and activity data.
    • company types:
      • upstream: oil and gas producers that report to the regulator.
      • midstream: gas processing and compression assets.
      • facility types: thermal, conventional, gas plants and similar assets.
    • exclusions:
      • power plants and grid assets.
      • refineries and upgraders.
      • very small operators below a practical emissions floor.
  • assumptions
    • market and policy:
      • Carbon prices follow a rising path under current guidance.
      • Performance based systems remain in effect.
      • Major reversals are treated as scenarios, not as base case.
    • technical:
      • BOE and NGL conversions use standard regulator factors.
      • Emission factors follow industry averages, not site specific engineering.
    • data:
      • Coverage includes most major producers and facilities.
      • Active sites report production and activities consistently.
  • success criteria
    • coverage: most major operators included by production and emissions.
    • validity: intensity ranges match accepted benchmarks by facility type.
    • usability: outputs support sales targeting, partnership screening, and internal planning.
  • limits and risks
    • snapshot in time, not a full cycle analysis.
    • some assets or ownership structures may sit outside the data.
    • simplified treatment of steam, fugitives, and scope 2 power.
    • high intensity and high emissions both matter; one does not replace the other.
    • comparisons are most meaningful within similar technology and facility classes.